BetsCenter.com: Sports Betting System

Tuesday night saw the Philadelphia Phillies (67-58) defeat the Washington Nationals (44-82) in what would turn out to be an important win for Philadelphia. Phillies SP Joe Blanton gave 4 runs in 5 innings and it looked like the Phils were going to lose the game to the lowly Nationals as they were down 4-1 when Blanton went out of the game.

But as soon as he left, the Phillies offense kicked into gear, scoring twice in the 5th inning, once in the 7th, and one more run again in the 8th to beat Washington 5-4. Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth hit the tiebreaking homerun in the 8th to give Philadelphia the lead. The Phillies are a major league best 56-0 when they are up going into the 9th inning. The loss was Washington’s 11th straight, their longest since moving to Washington.

Ryan Madson (3-1) was given the win, with Steven Shell (0-1) taking the loss. Brad Lidge closed out the game to earn his 31st save in 31 opportunities.

As always, if you’re looking to bet on sports, head over to http://www.BetsCenter.com for information on how to win 97% of your sports bets!

photo credit: Eric Kilby
Although much has been written on “money management”, most of these ideas focus on larger players with $100,000+ bankrolls. In my experience, the majority of players don’t have this kind of capital and have always been neglected when it comes to money management theory.

Before you decide what your bankroll is or what risks are acceptable, you first need to make a serious evaluation: what is your goal? Is your emphasis recreational - do you bet on games to add a little excitement to your favorite sport, while hoping to win some extra cash? Or are you an aspiring sharp who hopes to move up to the big leagues one day? Depending on your objective, there are very different styles of risk management that should apply.

The bad news first… No one likes to think about worst-case scenarios, but this is where any bettor (recreational OR professional) must start. For recreational players, think in terms of a single sports season. How much are you comfortable losing during the course of the season? Naturally the goal of any bettor is not to lose this amount – you’d obviously rather win this plus interest, but being realistic at the beginning will make your life simpler if you hit a nasty losing streak.

Assume Joe Public decides he’s willing to lose up to $1,000 during the entire baseball season. Next he must ask himself; what is the most Joe can bet and still be playing at the end of the season? Joe can always bet less, but he needs a firm ceiling on the most he should ever bet on any game during the season. The more games he wants to play, the less he should bet. A quick way to find out the ceiling is to guess how many games you will bet during the season and divide the bankroll by the square-root.

For example, if you were going to bet 100 games, the square root is 10, so Joe could risk as much as $100 per MLB game ($1,000/10). This is not to say he should risk $100 every game, but this is the most that he should ever consider betting on a single play.

Ignoring vigorish, a player has about a 1/40 chance of being down more than $1,000 after making a hundred, $100 bets. As a recreational player, you can almost ignore the vig at a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we use an 8-cent line in MLB, so Joe Public would only pay about $200 in vigorish for the entire season compared to $500 at a traditional bookie using a 20-cent line.

The needs of aspiring sharp players are very different. Joe Public wants action and hopes to win, whereas most sharps could care less about the action and bet to “beat the man” – some for money, others for the excitement of outsmarting the bookmaker. The above strategy won’t work for someone trying to win long-term, although it will keep you out of trouble.

If you’re an aspiring sharp, you already know what your bankroll is (the amount you are prepared to lose before you would quit betting). The next question to ask is how much should you risk per play? The answer is: it depends.

The number one mistake gamblers make is overestimating their advantage. Conventional wisdom suggests never risking more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play. This is good advice if you are betting the NFL/NBA/MLB for example. The information out there and the volume of betting make these markets deadly accurate (unless you are playing into opening numbers early).

Instead of firing bombs on these sports, a mid-sized player (with a bankroll from $1,000-$50,000) would be better off price-shopping and promotion hustling than handicapping these giants. If you hit the bonuses, free half-points and stale numbers, you can almost guarantee a year-end profit without picking a single game.

Another mistake bettors make is being timid when hitting small markets. Whereas 1-3% risked might be a good rule for pro sports, the rule for props and niche markets should be “How much will they take?” If you analyze in depth a prop or obscure market and think you have a 10% edge, there’s a good chance you probably do.

Similarly, college sports and areas with no large following provide great opportunities as long as you become an expert in that particular area. If you’re an expert on Portugal Liga TMN basketball or a Winter sports specialist with a strong opinion on Saturday’s Men’s 1000m final in short track skating at the Olympics (both available now for Internet betting at Pinnacle Sports), your estimates of high advantages could be correct and justify 5% or higher plays.

Normally I would give you a run down of the week’s sharp moves at this point in the column but after receiving some great questions from readers I thought it would be a good idea to share my answers in this column.

Chris wrote:
My question for you regards the following of “Sharp” or “Wise Guy” action. I have noticed that they seem to do very well. My question is: Can I win by simply following their plays?

Simon:
To answer your question, there is no guarantee that you’ll win by simply following sharps, but it can certainly give you a better chance to be a winner in the long run if you;

1. Make the same plays as the sharps.
2. Get the same number that they did when you place your wager; 3. Manage your money properly.

That being said, it’s usually tough to get the same number as the sharps unless the public opposes them or you have a local out with consistently stale numbers. Money management is also extremely important – we have many players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting who win more than half their plays, but lose money long-term due to poor money management.

Dave wrote:
What is the real win % of sharps? Also, do the sharps believe in playing high volume or being selective?

Simon:
Knowing what percent of bets a sharp wins will not tell you much – a player could easily win 55% of the time in baseball and still be a long-term loser. Alternatively, they could win 15% of the time and be a winner depending on the odds and the prices they play.

At Pinnacle Sports betting when we evaluate players and handicappers we look at two things: their win/loss record and whether they consistently get the best of the number (the market moves agree with their selections). A handicapper who is 55-45 on the year, but is always on the right side of line moves is far more dangerous than a capper at 15-5 with no market agreement.

Despite what many handicappers claim, on major league sports no one person ever consistently holds more than 5-6% long-term, although syndicates can do slightly better than this. Only a small fraction of players are sharp and even they do not win every year. Outside the major pro sports, some of our best players hold 15%.

As to playing high volume or being very selective, different players use different approaches. The full-time professionals tend to be volume players, whereas the “weekend warrior” sharps with normal 40-hour jobs are more selective.

The Wall Street Journal estimates that 100 million Americans wager close to $100 billion on sporting events each year. What are you missing out on?

The first ever sports bet probably happened a long time ago. It probably started between two cavemen. We’ll call them Grok and Akk. You see Grok once told Akk that he could run faster than a charging Saber Tooth Tiger. Akk scoffed at this notion but Grok was adamant. Akk relented with the prospect of Grok’s new spearhead if he wasn’t fast enough. The two agreed.

Akk won the makeshift wager and Grok, well, he became a belch.

As competition and man evolved we have continued to bet. It is one of the few intangibles that have carried over from those Grok-Akk days. We humans still have that innate desire for competition and risk. Sports wagering is yet another outlet for that intrinsic need.

We all love sports but not all of us can compete at a high level. So we do it everyday in business. We invest in stocks and we compete for partnerships, raises and promotions. We participate in office pools.

It all adds up to taking risks. How much are you willing to give in order to gain is as individual as it gets.

So we can’t run with Dwyane Wade, hit like Zach Thomas or throw like Roger Clemens so we find other ways to remain an active part of the sports we love and love to watch.

Today, the stakes aren’t as high as the day Grok became Meow Mix, but that action has evolved into a multi-billion dollar industry. Today, we wager with dollars and cents and when we win, we still get that tremendous rush and when we take a beating, we feel like something the cat caught.

This article is designed to guide the beginning bettor through all the betting basics and terminology they will need to place that first bet, start wining and get back in the big game.

Wining in sports betting is like the icing on the cake and we’ll help get you ready for that first big slice.

THE FIRST STEP - FIND A PLACE TO WAGER
To get started you will want to decide on a sport to bet on and a sports book to make your wager.

Selecting a wager outlet used to be a very secretive mission and your betting options were limited to what an individual “bookie,” or “book maker,” was capable of covering. These limited choices resulted in odds stacked against the bettor and a lingering apprehension when it came time for payouts.

As sports betting became a larger and more accepted practice, sportsbooks rose above their disreputable “bookie,” counterparts to enter the digital age. Online sportsbooks like Bodog, VIP and Sportsbook.com now have the security of being a large company ensuring the best benefits for many bettors.

Sportsbooks will take your bets in exchange for a commission - usually 10% of the wager. This is also known as the “juice,” or “vig,” or “vigorish.” In theory, the sportsbooks don’t care who you bet on - they simply take half of their bets on each “side” and make their 10% commission.

You have the opportunity to place bets on just about any sport you would like. From boxing to basketball, baseball to football for both college and professional games or events, these online giants can cover them all.

Of course, make sure you follow the local laws where you reside as it relates to placing wagers.

ESTABLISH A BANKROLL AND BET SIZE
Many novice sports bettors don’t even think about money management. They simply pick an arbitrary bet size and fire away. This strategy (or lack thereof) is very risky. It’s always better to think about your bankroll and pick the right bet size based on your bankroll. Please read our article about bankroll management.

DEVELOP REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
Expecting to win every bet? Of course not. But how much are you expecting to win? You might be surprised to know that the best profressionals in the business rarely achieve 60%. Most hit 55%-59% on a long term basis. But don’t be discouraged. Hitting anything above 52.38% is profitable and 55%-59% is very profitable. Please review our articles on Return on Investment (ROI) expectations and how to manage your own expectations. The key is to recognize that you shouldn’t come in and expect to break the bank right away. Successful sports bettors win by applying a disciplined approach over a long period of time. If you are looking to double your money in one weekend, you are setting yourself up for dissapointment.

MAKING THE WAGER
So now you are armed with the knowledge of the sportsbook, bankroll management and expectations, you are ready to place your first wager!

For this example we will use two teams from the NFL and take you through how to bet the two most common types of wagers – ATS or “Against the Spread,” and betting the OVER/UNDER.

Let’s say the San Diego Chargers are playing the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. You like the Chargers because they are having a great season, prolific offense, strong defense and they are racking up wins. Since the San Diego offense has been clicking, you also think that a lot of points will be scored during this game.

The next step is to go to a sportsbook and look up NFL and then find this particular game. Here’s what you might see:

TEAM	SPREAD	TOTAL
San Diego	-3 (-110)	44 (-110)
New England	+3 (-110)	44 (-110)

The line shows that San Diego is -3, with a total of 44-points. The reason why there is a line is because one team is going to be favored over another to win the game. This way the oddsmakers can level the playing field, making the bet attractive to both sides. In this case San Diego is the favorite and New England is the underdog.

This means that if you are placing your bet on San Diego, the Chargers will have to beat the Patriots by at least three points for you to win your bet. If they lose the game or win by less than three, you lose your bet.

Additionally, the second number shows 44, which is the OVER/UNDER score. By betting the OVER, you are putting money on the possibility that the sum of both team’s score will be greater than 44-points at the end of the game.

Next to the line for each type of bet (ATS, OVER/UNDER), you will see the odds. The odds simply mean the chances of the team wining the bet and how much money you will win in relation to how much you bet.

The (-110) indicates that the sportsbook is charging a 10% “juice” on these bets. That means that you will have to risk $11 for every $10 you wish to win. Again, this is the sportsbook’s profit.

Now you would like to place your bet in the hopes of winning $100 from each wager. You would bet your $110 ATS on the Chargers to win and cover (win by three or more points), and $110 for a total score of 44-points for a total wager of $220.

On Monday night, the Chargers roll to a 31-20 victory and you have won both of your bets!

The Chargers 11-point margin of victory was more than enough to cover the spread of three points needed to get the win for a cool 100 bucks. A total score of 51-points at the end of the game also means you have won your OVER/UNDER bet for another $100 stack. Not bad for your first bet.

SPORTS BETTING GLOSSARY

Betting Straight Up - Winning straight-up means simply winning on the scoreboard without any regard to the point spread. Betting straight-up would be to take a side or a team and bet on them to win outright.

ATS or “Against the Spread,” – Betting with a point spread or line instead of on the straight-up result. Taking points on an underdog or giving points on a favorite.

Side – Like betting straight-up, a side bet is a wager on a particular team, or side to win a contest.

Betting the totals/over/under - The line on a given contest, representing the combined number of points/goals scored by the two teams; see over/under. Betting the over/under is a bet on whether the combined total of the points or goals scored by the two teams will exceed or be less than a specified number.

Half time total – Betting on a team or total in the first half of the game only.

Parlays - A parlay bet is a bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful. Parlays are viewed by sharp gamblers as a sucker bet because the house edge (juice) is large.

Teaser - A bet on two or more teams where the line on each team is adjusted in the favor of the bettor. All bets must win in order to win a teaser.

Betting the “Money Line,” - The amount you must bet to win $100 (if betting a favorite), or the amount you win if you bet $100 (if betting an underdog). This is a bet based on the straight-up result of the game without a spread.

Betting the “Puckline,” - Used only in hockey. A “spread” usually set at exactly 1.5 goals. Favorites lay -1.5 goals while underdogs “get” +1.5 goals.

Now that we have covered the betting basics, we can breakdown some of the “exotics,” or “promotional,” bets.

Promos/exotics - Any wager other than a straight bet or parlay - also called a prop or proposition.

Betting “futures,” - Wagers made, or lines/odds posted on an event or outcome taking place some time in the future, like betting during the season on the eventual Super Bowl winner.

So the practice of betting on sports has come a long way from those cold days in the cave. Betting systems have advanced and online sports books have made betting and pay outs easier and handicappers can help you make the winning selections.

PICK ME A WINNER
The ability to pick winners has been a much sought after skill since Akk’s cave-mate Erk deduced that the four legs of the Saber Tooth tiger were twice as many as Grok’s two legs. This observation gave Akk the inside knowledge and statistical analysis to make an educated decision when agreeing to the bet. Erk shared this information with Akk and Akk got the win. Akk gave Erk a shiny new rabbit skin for his help and the handicapping industry was born.

Handicapping is the attempt to predict the outcome of sporting events by compiling research and analysis to determine a winner.

Nowadays, there is much more information to pour over and many factors such as the team’s or individual’s history, trends and the proper way to use the point spread and odds can make the difference between selecting a winner or loser.

Today, handicappers develop and employ their own system to determine who has the best chance of winning. Handicappers sell their observations and advice to bettors that would like to increase their chances of winning.

There are a few things to understand when deciding whether or not to use a handicapper. The first is to understand that the average bettor is not going to have the time or the access to complete the necessary research to make winning picks – keeping up with all the numbers is a full time job!

Handicappers complete all the research and sell their selections to the general betting public.

The next thing to consider is the cost associated with employing the services of a handicapper. But consider that a handicapper may charge $200 a month to provide bettors with picks, but if these picks win or “hit,” and the bettor can make $600 per month on those winning selections, the handicapper’s fee is well worth it, especially compared to losing on your own.

There are a few things to look for when selecting a handicapper. The first is that the handicapper you select should be honest and up front with their history as a handicapping professional. All of their past picks, performance record of wins and losses and how they determine their picks should be out in the open.

Also be wary of any handicapper that use the terms “lock,” or “sure thing,” because any seasoned gambler will tell you - there is no such thing. Additionally, stay away from the high pressure sales pitch. You should feel comfortable about whom you have managing your money, and that in essence, is what a handicapper will do for you. After all, you are placing these bets on the basis of their picks so remember: they work for you and not the other way around.

Well there you have it - a simple yet comprehensive guide to help you make your first bet. We have also compiled a glossary of betting terms you can refer to for additional information.

Good luck!