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Underdog or favorite? It’s a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your football picks.

1. NFL Parity

The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?

2. A Win is a Win

Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don’t typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn’t serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.

3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect

Underdogs don’t get any respect! They don’t get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don’t get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week’s tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.

4. The Public Can’t Help Itself

The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90’s with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public “bandwagon effect.” For example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City ’s defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn’t get over Kansas City ’s success and spot this situation.

5. Got Courage?

Most bettors don’t have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won’t be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.

6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think

Historically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250 for 100 for a straight-up win.

What It All Means

Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.

Of all the sports that an online sportsbook or local bookie will take a wager on, football by far is the best when it comes to action and excitement. If you are capable of keeping your mind and heart separate when it comes to analyzing games, you are already on your way to a winning season. Below are a few important things to remember for any serious handicapper.

1. Some guy pawning a 1-900-number does not have inside information or secret spies hidden in the locker room. If you believe that, you deserve to fork over the $25 or more for a call to a guy who is lucky to hit 50% for the year.

2. Watch as much football as you possibly can. Nothing beats actually seeing the games. Watching ESPN or reading in the sports page about a 42-17 blowout does not always tell the entire story. A team may get blown out in terms of scoring, but drove up and down the field and turned it over in the redzone or took stupid penalties. The following week the team that was humiliated is a huge dog and the team that blew them out a big favorite. Maybe the team that scored 42 is playing a team that won?t fumble every time in the red zone.

3. Understand garbage yards and the backdoor cover. Sure a team may have had 400 yards passing, but that was after being down 28-0 and playing against guys who didn?t even start in high school. Having a team minus 24 and being up 28-0, but allowing Badball University to score a late garbage TD will haunt a gambler?s dreams for weeks.

4. Avoid doubling up at all costs. Trying to double bets to break even has backfired more than it has worked. I have seen people go from being down a few hundred to a few thousand in a single gameday.

5. Passing is fun to watch, but running is the key. One of my all-time favorite stats is from 1998 when out of 276 games that had a line with an actual spread winner, the team that had more rushing yards covered 202 times. Look it up, 202 times!

6. Watch out for trends and tread lightly. Most preview magazines post these almost unbelievable trends. So-and-So State is 8-0 vs. John Doe U the last 8 years! That is incredible you say; well, go back another 8 years and you see the series goes the other way and now you have an 8-8 trend. A good matchup analysis or power rating beats a trend almost every time.

7. If you are going to load up on something, load up in the early season. A few years back Tulane was God?s gift to the sharp handicapper until Vegas started adjusting their line. Tulane returned a defense that was incredible the year before, but they had no ESPN highlights or ink in the sports page. Look for the Tulane story of 2003-04 and ride that ?unknown pony? until you have to get off.

8. If you have a favorite team or player, stay away from their games unless you are betting against them. No matter what you try and believe, you cannot reasonably handicap a team you love to watch and root for. You will make yourself believe they can win regardless if there are 100 angles pointing against it.

9. Dips/Teasers are sucker bets. There is no theory or statistics you can give me to think otherwise. When I would get a call and have someone place a dip, I knew I had at least one winner in the books for the day. Sure, people may have these stories how they hit 10 dips in a row, or how you can?t lose by dropping the point down and with the over, or boost NFL dogs up and mix them into combos. SUCKER!

The do?s and don?ts are endless. Bottom line is to keep your money and heart separate and understand the fact of life that there is a reason your bookie has a much nicer car and house than you. Good luck this season!