BetsCenter.com: Sports Betting System

Underdog or favorite? It’s a choice we make 16 times per week during the NFL season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in the NFL. Here are six reasons why you should pay special attention the dogs this season when making your football picks.

1. NFL Parity

The NFL has made great strides to achieve rough equality among teams. It has succeeded. Just look at these SuperBowl teams from the past several years: St. Louis in 2000, Baltimore in 2001, New England in 2002, Tampa Bay in 2003, and Carolina last year. None of these teams were supposed to make it that far but they all did and many won, despite losing records the year before. Unlike the college game, any given team can win on Sunday in the NFL. Why not get some points to boot?

2. A Win is a Win

Again, unlike in College, there is no need to blow-out a team. Favorites that get up early don’t typically run up the score in the NFL. It doesn’t serve a purpose and in most cases, coaches would rather not embarrass their opponent and/or risk injury to their stars. In the NFL, big leads often dwindle, with underdogs covering late in the game.

3. The Rodney Dangerfield Effect

Underdogs don’t get any respect! They don’t get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don’t get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week’s tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.

4. The Public Can’t Help Itself

The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), oftentimes pushing lines unreasonably high. We saw it during the 90’s with Dallas and San Francisco . In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public “bandwagon effect.” For example, last year Kansas City visited Cincinnati in week 10. The Chiefs had won nine straight and seemed invincible. In hindsight, Cincinnati was the easy underdog pick. Kansas City ’s defense was ranked 25 th in the league at the time. Cincinnati was on a roll having won 3 of their last four games and Rudi Johnson was coming into his own. Cincinnati had the emotional edge and nothing to lose by taking a shot at an undefeated team they knew they could beat. However, the public couldn’t get over Kansas City ’s success and spot this situation.

5. Got Courage?

Most bettors don’t have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won’t be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.

6. The Point-spread Matters Less than You Think

Historically, the point-spread matters in the NFL only about 16% of the time. In other words, 84% of the time, the team that covers the spread also wins. With this knowledge, if you have underdogs that you really like (based on the right research, not a hunch), you can take them to win straight-up (money line), collecting anywhere from 1.2 to 4 times your original bet. Usually a three-point dog will pay around 140 for 100 for a straight-up win versus 100 for 110 wagered on a regular spread-based pick. Seven point underdogs pay around 250 for 100 for a straight-up win.

What It All Means

Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.

Of all the sports that an online sportsbook or local bookie will take a wager on, football by far is the best when it comes to action and excitement. If you are capable of keeping your mind and heart separate when it comes to analyzing games, you are already on your way to a winning season. Below are a few important things to remember for any serious handicapper.

1. Some guy pawning a 1-900-number does not have inside information or secret spies hidden in the locker room. If you believe that, you deserve to fork over the $25 or more for a call to a guy who is lucky to hit 50% for the year.

2. Watch as much football as you possibly can. Nothing beats actually seeing the games. Watching ESPN or reading in the sports page about a 42-17 blowout does not always tell the entire story. A team may get blown out in terms of scoring, but drove up and down the field and turned it over in the redzone or took stupid penalties. The following week the team that was humiliated is a huge dog and the team that blew them out a big favorite. Maybe the team that scored 42 is playing a team that won?t fumble every time in the red zone.

3. Understand garbage yards and the backdoor cover. Sure a team may have had 400 yards passing, but that was after being down 28-0 and playing against guys who didn?t even start in high school. Having a team minus 24 and being up 28-0, but allowing Badball University to score a late garbage TD will haunt a gambler?s dreams for weeks.

4. Avoid doubling up at all costs. Trying to double bets to break even has backfired more than it has worked. I have seen people go from being down a few hundred to a few thousand in a single gameday.

5. Passing is fun to watch, but running is the key. One of my all-time favorite stats is from 1998 when out of 276 games that had a line with an actual spread winner, the team that had more rushing yards covered 202 times. Look it up, 202 times!

6. Watch out for trends and tread lightly. Most preview magazines post these almost unbelievable trends. So-and-So State is 8-0 vs. John Doe U the last 8 years! That is incredible you say; well, go back another 8 years and you see the series goes the other way and now you have an 8-8 trend. A good matchup analysis or power rating beats a trend almost every time.

7. If you are going to load up on something, load up in the early season. A few years back Tulane was God?s gift to the sharp handicapper until Vegas started adjusting their line. Tulane returned a defense that was incredible the year before, but they had no ESPN highlights or ink in the sports page. Look for the Tulane story of 2003-04 and ride that ?unknown pony? until you have to get off.

8. If you have a favorite team or player, stay away from their games unless you are betting against them. No matter what you try and believe, you cannot reasonably handicap a team you love to watch and root for. You will make yourself believe they can win regardless if there are 100 angles pointing against it.

9. Dips/Teasers are sucker bets. There is no theory or statistics you can give me to think otherwise. When I would get a call and have someone place a dip, I knew I had at least one winner in the books for the day. Sure, people may have these stories how they hit 10 dips in a row, or how you can?t lose by dropping the point down and with the over, or boost NFL dogs up and mix them into combos. SUCKER!

The do?s and don?ts are endless. Bottom line is to keep your money and heart separate and understand the fact of life that there is a reason your bookie has a much nicer car and house than you. Good luck this season!

The Wall Street Journal estimates that 100 million Americans wager close to $100 billion on sporting events each year. What are you missing out on?

The first ever sports bet probably happened a long time ago. It probably started between two cavemen. We’ll call them Grok and Akk. You see Grok once told Akk that he could run faster than a charging Saber Tooth Tiger. Akk scoffed at this notion but Grok was adamant. Akk relented with the prospect of Grok’s new spearhead if he wasn’t fast enough. The two agreed.

Akk won the makeshift wager and Grok, well, he became a belch.

As competition and man evolved we have continued to bet. It is one of the few intangibles that have carried over from those Grok-Akk days. We humans still have that innate desire for competition and risk. Sports wagering is yet another outlet for that intrinsic need.

We all love sports but not all of us can compete at a high level. So we do it everyday in business. We invest in stocks and we compete for partnerships, raises and promotions. We participate in office pools.

It all adds up to taking risks. How much are you willing to give in order to gain is as individual as it gets.

So we can’t run with Dwyane Wade, hit like Zach Thomas or throw like Roger Clemens so we find other ways to remain an active part of the sports we love and love to watch.

Today, the stakes aren’t as high as the day Grok became Meow Mix, but that action has evolved into a multi-billion dollar industry. Today, we wager with dollars and cents and when we win, we still get that tremendous rush and when we take a beating, we feel like something the cat caught.

This article is designed to guide the beginning bettor through all the betting basics and terminology they will need to place that first bet, start wining and get back in the big game.

Wining in sports betting is like the icing on the cake and we’ll help get you ready for that first big slice.

THE FIRST STEP - FIND A PLACE TO WAGER
To get started you will want to decide on a sport to bet on and a sports book to make your wager.

Selecting a wager outlet used to be a very secretive mission and your betting options were limited to what an individual “bookie,” or “book maker,” was capable of covering. These limited choices resulted in odds stacked against the bettor and a lingering apprehension when it came time for payouts.

As sports betting became a larger and more accepted practice, sportsbooks rose above their disreputable “bookie,” counterparts to enter the digital age. Online sportsbooks like Bodog, VIP and Sportsbook.com now have the security of being a large company ensuring the best benefits for many bettors.

Sportsbooks will take your bets in exchange for a commission - usually 10% of the wager. This is also known as the “juice,” or “vig,” or “vigorish.” In theory, the sportsbooks don’t care who you bet on - they simply take half of their bets on each “side” and make their 10% commission.

You have the opportunity to place bets on just about any sport you would like. From boxing to basketball, baseball to football for both college and professional games or events, these online giants can cover them all.

Of course, make sure you follow the local laws where you reside as it relates to placing wagers.

ESTABLISH A BANKROLL AND BET SIZE
Many novice sports bettors don’t even think about money management. They simply pick an arbitrary bet size and fire away. This strategy (or lack thereof) is very risky. It’s always better to think about your bankroll and pick the right bet size based on your bankroll. Please read our article about bankroll management.

DEVELOP REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
Expecting to win every bet? Of course not. But how much are you expecting to win? You might be surprised to know that the best profressionals in the business rarely achieve 60%. Most hit 55%-59% on a long term basis. But don’t be discouraged. Hitting anything above 52.38% is profitable and 55%-59% is very profitable. Please review our articles on Return on Investment (ROI) expectations and how to manage your own expectations. The key is to recognize that you shouldn’t come in and expect to break the bank right away. Successful sports bettors win by applying a disciplined approach over a long period of time. If you are looking to double your money in one weekend, you are setting yourself up for dissapointment.

MAKING THE WAGER
So now you are armed with the knowledge of the sportsbook, bankroll management and expectations, you are ready to place your first wager!

For this example we will use two teams from the NFL and take you through how to bet the two most common types of wagers – ATS or “Against the Spread,” and betting the OVER/UNDER.

Let’s say the San Diego Chargers are playing the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. You like the Chargers because they are having a great season, prolific offense, strong defense and they are racking up wins. Since the San Diego offense has been clicking, you also think that a lot of points will be scored during this game.

The next step is to go to a sportsbook and look up NFL and then find this particular game. Here’s what you might see:

TEAM	SPREAD	TOTAL
San Diego	-3 (-110)	44 (-110)
New England	+3 (-110)	44 (-110)

The line shows that San Diego is -3, with a total of 44-points. The reason why there is a line is because one team is going to be favored over another to win the game. This way the oddsmakers can level the playing field, making the bet attractive to both sides. In this case San Diego is the favorite and New England is the underdog.

This means that if you are placing your bet on San Diego, the Chargers will have to beat the Patriots by at least three points for you to win your bet. If they lose the game or win by less than three, you lose your bet.

Additionally, the second number shows 44, which is the OVER/UNDER score. By betting the OVER, you are putting money on the possibility that the sum of both team’s score will be greater than 44-points at the end of the game.

Next to the line for each type of bet (ATS, OVER/UNDER), you will see the odds. The odds simply mean the chances of the team wining the bet and how much money you will win in relation to how much you bet.

The (-110) indicates that the sportsbook is charging a 10% “juice” on these bets. That means that you will have to risk $11 for every $10 you wish to win. Again, this is the sportsbook’s profit.

Now you would like to place your bet in the hopes of winning $100 from each wager. You would bet your $110 ATS on the Chargers to win and cover (win by three or more points), and $110 for a total score of 44-points for a total wager of $220.

On Monday night, the Chargers roll to a 31-20 victory and you have won both of your bets!

The Chargers 11-point margin of victory was more than enough to cover the spread of three points needed to get the win for a cool 100 bucks. A total score of 51-points at the end of the game also means you have won your OVER/UNDER bet for another $100 stack. Not bad for your first bet.

SPORTS BETTING GLOSSARY

Betting Straight Up - Winning straight-up means simply winning on the scoreboard without any regard to the point spread. Betting straight-up would be to take a side or a team and bet on them to win outright.

ATS or “Against the Spread,” – Betting with a point spread or line instead of on the straight-up result. Taking points on an underdog or giving points on a favorite.

Side – Like betting straight-up, a side bet is a wager on a particular team, or side to win a contest.

Betting the totals/over/under - The line on a given contest, representing the combined number of points/goals scored by the two teams; see over/under. Betting the over/under is a bet on whether the combined total of the points or goals scored by the two teams will exceed or be less than a specified number.

Half time total – Betting on a team or total in the first half of the game only.

Parlays - A parlay bet is a bet with two or more teams where all the teams must win for the bettor to be successful. Parlays are viewed by sharp gamblers as a sucker bet because the house edge (juice) is large.

Teaser - A bet on two or more teams where the line on each team is adjusted in the favor of the bettor. All bets must win in order to win a teaser.

Betting the “Money Line,” - The amount you must bet to win $100 (if betting a favorite), or the amount you win if you bet $100 (if betting an underdog). This is a bet based on the straight-up result of the game without a spread.

Betting the “Puckline,” - Used only in hockey. A “spread” usually set at exactly 1.5 goals. Favorites lay -1.5 goals while underdogs “get” +1.5 goals.

Now that we have covered the betting basics, we can breakdown some of the “exotics,” or “promotional,” bets.

Promos/exotics - Any wager other than a straight bet or parlay - also called a prop or proposition.

Betting “futures,” - Wagers made, or lines/odds posted on an event or outcome taking place some time in the future, like betting during the season on the eventual Super Bowl winner.

So the practice of betting on sports has come a long way from those cold days in the cave. Betting systems have advanced and online sports books have made betting and pay outs easier and handicappers can help you make the winning selections.

PICK ME A WINNER
The ability to pick winners has been a much sought after skill since Akk’s cave-mate Erk deduced that the four legs of the Saber Tooth tiger were twice as many as Grok’s two legs. This observation gave Akk the inside knowledge and statistical analysis to make an educated decision when agreeing to the bet. Erk shared this information with Akk and Akk got the win. Akk gave Erk a shiny new rabbit skin for his help and the handicapping industry was born.

Handicapping is the attempt to predict the outcome of sporting events by compiling research and analysis to determine a winner.

Nowadays, there is much more information to pour over and many factors such as the team’s or individual’s history, trends and the proper way to use the point spread and odds can make the difference between selecting a winner or loser.

Today, handicappers develop and employ their own system to determine who has the best chance of winning. Handicappers sell their observations and advice to bettors that would like to increase their chances of winning.

There are a few things to understand when deciding whether or not to use a handicapper. The first is to understand that the average bettor is not going to have the time or the access to complete the necessary research to make winning picks – keeping up with all the numbers is a full time job!

Handicappers complete all the research and sell their selections to the general betting public.

The next thing to consider is the cost associated with employing the services of a handicapper. But consider that a handicapper may charge $200 a month to provide bettors with picks, but if these picks win or “hit,” and the bettor can make $600 per month on those winning selections, the handicapper’s fee is well worth it, especially compared to losing on your own.

There are a few things to look for when selecting a handicapper. The first is that the handicapper you select should be honest and up front with their history as a handicapping professional. All of their past picks, performance record of wins and losses and how they determine their picks should be out in the open.

Also be wary of any handicapper that use the terms “lock,” or “sure thing,” because any seasoned gambler will tell you - there is no such thing. Additionally, stay away from the high pressure sales pitch. You should feel comfortable about whom you have managing your money, and that in essence, is what a handicapper will do for you. After all, you are placing these bets on the basis of their picks so remember: they work for you and not the other way around.

Well there you have it - a simple yet comprehensive guide to help you make your first bet. We have also compiled a glossary of betting terms you can refer to for additional information.

Good luck!