photo credit: Boy27wonder

Most of us who have been to Las Vegas or Atlantic City have placed a sports bet at one of the huge sportsbooks that we saw at a gaudy casino, and the majority of those bets were placed on an NFL or College Football game. If we want to bet on these games at home, however, our options are limited to using a bookie over the phone or betting online. There is no question that NFL betting online is the smarter option, but did you know that it’s also a better move than using a Vegas sportsbook!

Here are just a few reasons why wagering on football online makes sense:

1. They want your business more, and they’re willing to pay for it.

Do you really think that it matters to the Wynn’s sportsbook if you take your measly $100 parlay with them or with the guys across the Strip? They offer their NFL lines and Super Bowl odds and they’ll pour you a free watered-down drink while you look at them, but that’s about it for special deals. Online sportsbooks are a different story. There are thousands of them out there so in order to stand out they will make you a far sweeter deal.

They’ll give you free money if you bet with them: in the form of a sign-up bonus and in reload bonuses.

They’ll run special promotions and competitions. If you bet with them on a certain day, say taking your NFL bets on a Friday you will qualify for lower juice on all your winning bets - try getting that deal in Vegas!

They will send you free gifts like pagers, golf shirts, and tote bags to reward you for being a loyal client.

Most importantly, if you are a serious sports bettor looking to make serious money from your NFL bets you have to bet online because they offer critical stretches on NFL lines. Online sportsbooks do offer superior odds on many NFL games, that’s a fact. If you don’t know how important that ½ point stretch can be then you clearly have never bet on football before.

2. They’re convenient and idiot-proof

Most of us don’t want to fly to Vegas every time we want to place a bet on the NFL, and a lot of us aren’t comfortable phoning some guy who works out of the back of a laundry to take our action. We’ve seen ?The Sopranos? and know that a lot of bucket shops are run by bookmakers without the best credentials. Online sportsbooks are open 24/7 and have incredible customer service departments. They will take you through every step and if you ever have a problem or question the result of a bet they can sort it out for you. Their reputation matters a lot to them, so they will do whatever it takes to keep you as a satisfied client.

You can bet on the NFL whenever you want to, and it’s virtually impossible to make a mistake with your bet. There are confirmation screens and records of every bet you placed.

3. Online betting caters to high-rollers and small-fry alike

If you want to put ten bucks on a game you can do it online, and if you want to take a $10,000 parlay they’ll take your action as well. If you are a professional gambler you will want several online sports betting accounts, because of the variety in the lines and the value of shopping around for the best NFL odds. If you are just starting out you will feel a lot more comfortable online where you can always receive personal assistance and check your own records, as opposed to standing in one of those monolithic Vegas rooms wondering what to do.

4. They are safe and reliable

At least, the ones recommended on the Insider are safe and reliable. There are bad online gambling sites out there, don’t kid yourself. There are online sportsbooks we wouldn’t trust at all, and horror stories are plentiful. That’s why we only choose online gambling sites that we use ourselves, and where we personally know the people who operate those sites. The sites you will find here are usually publicly traded companies on major stock exchanges around the globe. When you withdraw your winnings from these sites you will get paid, without any quibbles. You will also be able to deposit and withdraw money quickly and without any hassles. These are top-notch operations geared towards providing you with an enjoyable sports betting experience. They answer to you.

5. They offer more NFL betting markets

They actually offer more sports betting markets than you can probably imagine. If you want to take an NFL parlay, a teaser, a multi-sport bet, or perhaps you want to bet on something completely different like the results of the next Academy Awards then you can do that at one of our recommended online sportsbooks.

If you’re interested in NFL prop betting, or want to bet on NFL preseason totals then you will want an online sports betting account. If you want to bet on the coin toss at the Super Bowl online sportsbooks are clearly the way to go.

photo credit: justinoberman

July 8, 2008 / By Rob Gerein

The first-place Tampa Bay Rays will try to add to their lead in the American League East division when they visit the New York Yankees for a two-game series starting Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.

MLB betting fans may as well throw a dart at the wall with this one, as oddsmakers at Bookmaker have Tuesday’s tilt as a -110 pick’em and the over/under total at 8.

The matchup will pit two of the best left-handed pitchers in MLB against each other, as Tampa Bay ace and 2008 All-Star Scott Kazmir goes against Andy Pettitte of the Yankees. Kazmir is 7-3 with a 2.63 ERA this season, while Pettitte is 9-6 with a 4.22 ERA.

New York (47-42) is third in the AL East, 8½ games behind the Rays (55-32) and 4 games behind the second-place Boston Red Sox.

Kazmir’s last start came July 2 against Boston, when he pitched five innings in a 7-6 win. Pettitte’s last game was also against Boston, the next night, July 3, when he was shelled 7-0 and pitched less than five innings.

In their last games, Tampa Bay dropped a 7-4 decision to the Kansas City Royals on Monday, while New York edged arch-rival Boston 5-4 on Sunday, giving it a split of their four-game series.

The Rays and Yankees last met on May 15, when Kazmir led the Rays to a 5-2 home win. Tampa Bay was a -155 moneyline favorite and the score went under the total of 8.

The second game Wednesday afternoon will have Edwin Jackson (5-6, 4.08 ERA) of the Rays against Sidney Ponson (5-1, 4.19 ERA) of the Yankees.

The teams were involved in a spring-training brawl in March that resulted in two players and two coaches being ejected.

July 10, 2008 / By SPORSTBETTING.COM

The Milwaukee Brewers acquired a good starter for their rotation; the Chicago Cubs have followed suit and we haven’t even hit the All-Star break yet.

Yes, the National League Central seems to be where all the action is these days and with all the wheeling and dealing that has taken place the past week, the stage is set for a wild second half.

Things are crowded atop the NL Central standings as the Cubs currently reign supreme and the St. Louis Cardinals and the aforementioned Brewers are hot in pursuit.

The Milwaukee Brewers ensured the race for the division would be a tight one with the acquisition of the defending AL Cy Young award winner CC Sabathia from the Cleveland Indians.

The Brewers are currently five back of the Cubbies and adding another fireballer to the rotation could shift the balance of power.

In the 17 games before Sabathia moved to the NL, the Brew Crew had gone 11-6 and the team has gone 1-2 since with the lone win being Sabathia’s Milwaukee debut; a 7-3 win over Colorado.

In the five games preceding Sabathia’s departure to Milwaukee, the former Indian compiled a record of 4-1 and had gone Under in eight of 13 games.

The Money line numbers when Sabathia starts aren’t that great as the southpaw’s teams have gone 9-10 this season.

Not to be outdone, the division leading Cubs added the likes of Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin, although let’s be honest, Harden is the prize catch.

The Cubs were 53-36 before the deal with Oakland and in Harden they get a pitcher who’s been quite profitable on the Money line.

Sporting an overall record of 5-1 in 2008, Harden’s teams have gone 9-4 when he has started this season.

With only five games separating the two and another half of the season to be played, you might be interested to know that the two will be playing each other in the last three games of the season in late September.

So how has Harden done against the Brewers and how has Sabathia done against the Cubs?

Harden has not seen any action against Milwaukee so far and Sabathia has only played against Chicago’s north siders once losing 9-2 with the game going Over.

In the month of September, Harden has gone 7-4 SU, grabbing eight Overs and three Unders in the same timeframe.

Meanwhile, Sabathia has gone 13-7 in his last 20 starts in the final month of the regular season and has a Total record of six Overs and 14 Unders in the same span.

It isn’t even the All-Star break yet and already there is action in the NL Central division making for a very interesting second half.

Enjoy your weekend and the upcoming All-Star game.

photo credit: Eric Kilby
Although much has been written on “money management”, most of these ideas focus on larger players with $100,000+ bankrolls. In my experience, the majority of players don’t have this kind of capital and have always been neglected when it comes to money management theory.

Before you decide what your bankroll is or what risks are acceptable, you first need to make a serious evaluation: what is your goal? Is your emphasis recreational - do you bet on games to add a little excitement to your favorite sport, while hoping to win some extra cash? Or are you an aspiring sharp who hopes to move up to the big leagues one day? Depending on your objective, there are very different styles of risk management that should apply.

The bad news first… No one likes to think about worst-case scenarios, but this is where any bettor (recreational OR professional) must start. For recreational players, think in terms of a single sports season. How much are you comfortable losing during the course of the season? Naturally the goal of any bettor is not to lose this amount – you’d obviously rather win this plus interest, but being realistic at the beginning will make your life simpler if you hit a nasty losing streak.

Assume Joe Public decides he’s willing to lose up to $1,000 during the entire baseball season. Next he must ask himself; what is the most Joe can bet and still be playing at the end of the season? Joe can always bet less, but he needs a firm ceiling on the most he should ever bet on any game during the season. The more games he wants to play, the less he should bet. A quick way to find out the ceiling is to guess how many games you will bet during the season and divide the bankroll by the square-root.

For example, if you were going to bet 100 games, the square root is 10, so Joe could risk as much as $100 per MLB game ($1,000/10). This is not to say he should risk $100 every game, but this is the most that he should ever consider betting on a single play.

Ignoring vigorish, a player has about a 1/40 chance of being down more than $1,000 after making a hundred, $100 bets. As a recreational player, you can almost ignore the vig at a reduced juice sports book like Pinnacle Sports. At Pinnacle Sportsbook we use an 8-cent line in MLB, so Joe Public would only pay about $200 in vigorish for the entire season compared to $500 at a traditional bookie using a 20-cent line.

The needs of aspiring sharp players are very different. Joe Public wants action and hopes to win, whereas most sharps could care less about the action and bet to “beat the man” – some for money, others for the excitement of outsmarting the bookmaker. The above strategy won’t work for someone trying to win long-term, although it will keep you out of trouble.

If you’re an aspiring sharp, you already know what your bankroll is (the amount you are prepared to lose before you would quit betting). The next question to ask is how much should you risk per play? The answer is: it depends.

The number one mistake gamblers make is overestimating their advantage. Conventional wisdom suggests never risking more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play. This is good advice if you are betting the NFL/NBA/MLB for example. The information out there and the volume of betting make these markets deadly accurate (unless you are playing into opening numbers early).

Instead of firing bombs on these sports, a mid-sized player (with a bankroll from $1,000-$50,000) would be better off price-shopping and promotion hustling than handicapping these giants. If you hit the bonuses, free half-points and stale numbers, you can almost guarantee a year-end profit without picking a single game.

Another mistake bettors make is being timid when hitting small markets. Whereas 1-3% risked might be a good rule for pro sports, the rule for props and niche markets should be “How much will they take?” If you analyze in depth a prop or obscure market and think you have a 10% edge, there’s a good chance you probably do.

Similarly, college sports and areas with no large following provide great opportunities as long as you become an expert in that particular area. If you’re an expert on Portugal Liga TMN basketball or a Winter sports specialist with a strong opinion on Saturday’s Men’s 1000m final in short track skating at the Olympics (both available now for Internet betting at Pinnacle Sports), your estimates of high advantages could be correct and justify 5% or higher plays.

Normally I would give you a run down of the week’s sharp moves at this point in the column but after receiving some great questions from readers I thought it would be a good idea to share my answers in this column.

Chris wrote:
My question for you regards the following of “Sharp” or “Wise Guy” action. I have noticed that they seem to do very well. My question is: Can I win by simply following their plays?

Simon:
To answer your question, there is no guarantee that you’ll win by simply following sharps, but it can certainly give you a better chance to be a winner in the long run if you;

1. Make the same plays as the sharps.
2. Get the same number that they did when you place your wager; 3. Manage your money properly.

That being said, it’s usually tough to get the same number as the sharps unless the public opposes them or you have a local out with consistently stale numbers. Money management is also extremely important – we have many players at Pinnacle Sportsbetting who win more than half their plays, but lose money long-term due to poor money management.

Dave wrote:
What is the real win % of sharps? Also, do the sharps believe in playing high volume or being selective?

Simon:
Knowing what percent of bets a sharp wins will not tell you much – a player could easily win 55% of the time in baseball and still be a long-term loser. Alternatively, they could win 15% of the time and be a winner depending on the odds and the prices they play.

At Pinnacle Sports betting when we evaluate players and handicappers we look at two things: their win/loss record and whether they consistently get the best of the number (the market moves agree with their selections). A handicapper who is 55-45 on the year, but is always on the right side of line moves is far more dangerous than a capper at 15-5 with no market agreement.

Despite what many handicappers claim, on major league sports no one person ever consistently holds more than 5-6% long-term, although syndicates can do slightly better than this. Only a small fraction of players are sharp and even they do not win every year. Outside the major pro sports, some of our best players hold 15%.

As to playing high volume or being very selective, different players use different approaches. The full-time professionals tend to be volume players, whereas the “weekend warrior” sharps with normal 40-hour jobs are more selective.

Our approach to regular season NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. After all, our opinion has long been that most information is priced into NFL lines already. As such, we place a much higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates us playing mostly dogs and/or the lesser competent teams.

Come playoff time, our approach changes drastically. After all, history shows us that the number of favorites who cover far outnumber the amount of dogs who cover in the post season. Moreover, the amount of double digit margin of victories (as a ratio to single digit margin of victory) is alarmingly high as compared to the regular season. We have chronicled in the past the why and wherefores of this dynamic. So with all of this in mind, it is no wonder we lay a lot of wood come December and January.

A fellow handicapper of whom we follow rather closely expounded on this idea. No doubt, his observations make an abundance of sense. While his thought concurred with ours in that the better team usually wins and covers in the NFL Playoffs, he went on to say “the better team is not always the favorite”.

In hindsight, the Ravens were the dog many times on their way to winning the Super Bowl. However, they indeed were the better team in each of the games they played. We?ve looked back over the years and culled similar examples. This last weekend provides as good of example as any.

Despite heavy public sentiment for both, a warning sign during the regular season, we felt very strong that the Eagles and the Raiders were the superior teams. After watching the games, we are not certain this is true. While there is no denying that Oakland is better than Tennessee, we can make a solid case that the underdog Bucs are a better team than the Eagles. That is in hindsight of course!

So what is the lesson? All of this study still leads to NFL Favorites being an excellent point spread proposition come the post season. a better proposition however, and one that does always go hand in hand with the team that is favored; is to simply bet whom you believe the better side is. That is irrespective of the point spread. (This strategy equals death in the regular season!!!) Furthermore, it would make sense that if the better team is an underdog, one should bet them on the money line as well. Most likely if they cover, they will also win outright.

To sum up; the NFL regular season has much to do with weighing public sentiment and value seeking. The NFL post season has much more to do with fundamentals and isolating the better team.

This NFL observations article courtesy of William Foote of SuperiorDaily.com